Five years ago the centrist leader Francois Bayrou was for a short period the most talked-of personality in French politics.
It's a long shot. But it cannot be ruled out.
In 2002 he had his first shot at the presidency, winning a disppointing 6.8%. Five years later he had his breakthrough.
If Mr Bayrou is expecting another breakthough in 2012, there are reasons to be optimistic. Even more than in 2007, circumstances today favour the outsider.
Nicolas Sarkozy is the unpopular president of a country about to enter recession. His promises of improving the lot of working people have come to nothing.
But the public is not particularly enamoured either of the official opposition, the Socialists (PS), and their candidate Francois Hollande. Many lump the PS and Sarkozy's UMP party together as the "establishment" – and wish a curse on both their houses.
Alternatives such as Francois Bayrou and the National Front leader Marine Le Pen have thus taken on a new credibility.
Marine Le Pen, who is several points ahead of Mr Bayrou in the opinion polls, comes from a very different political family. But in a sense they are rivals for the same title of "people's champion."
While Marine Le Pen appeals to the impoverished working-class, Francois Bayrou stresses his rural roots.
Both urge a "buy French" campaign to save domestic industry, both decry corruption among the elite, and both use the same acronym – UMPS – to describe the ruling duopoly.
"I love the people. I come from the people. I grew up in a village of workers and peasants," Mr Bayrou said in a recent interview. "Those who use the word 'people' as an insult understand nothing of France."
His outsider status is a little unconvincing when one thinks of his own record as coalition partner with the Gaullists. But on one point, Mr Bayrou can genuinely claim to have led the way.
Long before it became fashionable, he was warning about France's worrying financial deficit. At the 2007 election he promised a constitutional change to ensure balanced budgets.
That these are now commonplace themes gives him a very strong hand.
But if there are solid reasons to back the Bayrou horse, there are also reasons to doubt.
Why for example, during the 2007 campaign, did Simone Veil – a concentration camp survivor, politician and one of the most respected public figures in France – say this of him?
"He is a schemer and an opportunist ⦠convinced he has been touched by the hand of God and is pre-destined to be the president – not just a traitor, but a crank to boot."
And why, when one looks back at Mr Bayrou's career, is the overriding impression an endless flow of former allies bidding him "au revoir"?
Back in the mid-80s when he first entered parliament, there were 214 UDF members of the National Assembly. Today, in his newly-formed Modem party, there are two – himself and a neighbour from Bearn.
After he lost his first presidential race in 2002, half of his supporters defected to join the new UMP. When he lost in 2007, most of the rest set up a rival formation, the Nouveau Centre, and backed President Sarkozy.
The fact is that Mr Bayrou has the power to alienate many of those who might otherwise support him.
They feel he is touched by a certain megalomania, with an almost messianic sense of destiny. And they dislike the way his political world revolves exclusively round these periodic bids for the presidency.
A hard-hearted critic would note that it is only at presidential elections that Francois Bayrou can really come into his own.
This is because the main candidates of left and right invariably appeal to their outer fringes ahead of round one, and this leaves a gaping hole in the centre – which the centrist happily fills.
It happened in 2007, but after round one Mr Bayrou sank without trace. He then spent five years in the wilderness before re-emerging once again two months ago as providential middle-of-the-roader.
For many he suffers from a permanent case of the "Poulidor" syndrome – after the French cyclist Raymond Poulidor who never quite made it to the top of the podium.
But just possibly, things are different in 2012. Because, for the first time in modern French politics, this election looks like it could be a four-horse race: Mr Sarkozy, Mr Hollande, Ms Le Pen and Mr Bayrou.
If all four candidates begin to even up in the polls, then just a tiny shift in voting intentions could alter everything.
A Bayrou in round two is therefore not inconceivable. And against Ms Le Pen or Mr Sarkozy, he would probably win.